There can’t be a Nate Silver for housing; Silver uses math for his predictions (which is why they’ve always been so accurate), and predicting the housing market requires some degree of guesswork. (Educated guesswork, hopefully.)
Bill McBride at Calculated Risk was kind enough to put together the 2012 predictions of various people and organizations so we can see who got how close.
| New Home Sales (000s) | Total Starts (000s) | |
| Fannie Mae | 336 | 704 |
| John Burns | 359 | 717 |
| Merrill Lynch | 330 | 713 |
| Moody’s | 530 | – |
| NAHB | 360 | 709 |
| Tom Lawler | 365 | 740 |
| Wells Fargo | 350 | 690 |
| 2012 Actual* | 370 | 770 |
*well, a solid estimate based on what thing look like this week
So Tom Lawler was the most accurate, and Moody’s the least.
And what do these same folks say about 2013? Again, thanks to Mr. McBride for doing the work:
| New Home Sales (000s) | Single Family Starts (000s) | Total Starts (000s) | House Prices | |
| Barclays | 424 | – | 988 | +4.8% |
| Fannie Mae | 452 | 659 | 936 | +1.6% |
| Merrill Lynch | 466 | – | 976 | +2.6% |
| Moody’s | 500 | 820 | 1,190 | +1.4% |
| NAHB | 447 | 641 | 910 | +1.6% |
| Wells Fargo | 460 | 680 | 990 | +2.6% |
Once again, Moody’s seems overly enthusiastic (on starts this time). Of course, we learned from the housing bubble that Moody’s tends to overrate things.) And Barclays is expecting much higher price than everyone else.
Once again we’ll have to wait to see who got it right. Me, I’m waiting for Lawler’s figures.
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