The latest quarterly commercial real estate forecast from NAR has zero surprises (and that’s just fine). It says that yes, the CRE market is recovering with the rest of the economy, “but a slowdown in job creation and ongoing tight loan availability has tempered growth in some areas.”
Hard to argue.
Jobs are growing, but never as fast as we’d like. Loans are available, but lenders are still cautious, and that caution is making it harder for businesses, especially smaller ones, to get loans.
Vacancy rates are declining, but they’re still high (“above historic averages”). Here in Virginia, uncertainly over whether Congress can get undeadlocked and avoid huge spending cuts — which would disproportionately affect the Commonwealth — has some businesses holding off on hiring.
So bottom line: CRE is improving, but slowly.